What if you could live two lifetimes in one? Would you do it?
A series of massive breakthroughs recently in a few of the biological systems research fields have Philosophers, Ethics Professors, and Dictators alike piqued at the very thought. So naturally, they have questions. We will explore some of them along with the proposed details of the process, what it could cost, and a brief review of a significant research laboratory breaking traditions and pushing forward, founded by Google.
“I don’t want to achieve immortality through my work.
I want to achieve it through not dying.”
-Woody Allen
Overview
Of the variety of Publicly Traded and Private Research organizations, Calico Labs truly stands out. Not only is Calico a subsidiary of Alphabet Inc (Google's Umbrella Company), but Calico is breaking with a century of previous traditions by leaving behind the known limitations of academic and laboratory research, combining the best minds in both disciplines into one lab. To top that off, Calico’s current CEO is none other than - Arthur D. Levinson, who you would remember if you read this article. If that doesn't get you excited, check your pulse:
"We are not a traditional biotechnology company, nor are we an academic institution. We look to combine the best parts of both without the restraints of either."
-Calico Labs, an Alphabet Company
To start, we need to address the two main avenues of research that build the backbone of this cutting-edge research in Life Extension Technologies:
Diseases caused by Aging and Degeneration
De-Aging Technologies
The first addresses specific degenerative diseases that plague humanity, and the other addresses explicitly the causes of aging, seeking not only to stop or slow aging but to reverse the process entirely.
Let's start with an overview of some severe and degenerative diseases that researchers are focused on, specifically:
Alzheimer's Disease
Lou Gehrig's Disease
Cancers
Diabetes
Cystic Fibrosis
Cardiovascular Diseases
Huntington's Disease
Osteoporosis
Parkinson's Disease
Along with some Quality of Life Treatments:
Retinal Degeneration (Loss or Depreciation of EyeSight),
Balding,
Wrinkles,
Vitality, Energy, etc
Focused degenerative disease and some quality-of-life treatments follow the same trajectory as most of our current advancements in Medical Care and will be included in Private Medical Insurance Schemes.
How so? It's basic economics. No private insurer wants to pay for expensive continuance-of-care treatments when the cure is cheaper.
An example with Parkinson's Disease:
A 2017 study of people living with Parkinson's disease estimated the quantity at over 1M Americans with this particular disease, which will increase as our aging Boomers enter the above 65 category (Circa 2030), which is the highest prevalence group for this condition. With a current estimated medical care cost of over $25 Billion a year and another $27 Billion in additional costs, an exciting knock-on effect for our Private Health Insurance Schemes will arise where it becomes economically cheaper to cure someone of Parkinson's than to continue care. At first consideration, this may seem obvious, but this situation may present some interesting challenges we will discuss further in the article.
It's yet to be seen if the potential of an extra $50 Billion a year in medical costs and services being 'cured' in just this one disease segment will impact rising insurance costs for average Americans.
Shed The Old - In With The New
What would the process of de-aging look like? As per the researchers working on various projects, and like all technology – it will get better and cheaper with time. However, a Life Extension procedure could be quite taxing on the human body and require a substantial investment of money and time. Estimates suggest a patient would need to consent to be put into a medically induced coma for a month or two while scientists work your cells into a whole new you.
Described by the researchers as an excruciating and tedious process to start, this will improve and shorten in duration over time. Within a decade after this procedure is made available to the public, researchers are projecting the total procedure time could rapidly fall from a month to a week to even a few hours of in/outpatient procedure, depending on your level of cellular damage (Read: Age).
Initial costs? Upwards of $200,000 to 1-2 Million for the first, not-so-lucky few who elect for this option. As time rolls on, the prices will come down; scientists will figure out drug complications, and its access will broaden to the Upper and Middle classes for the chance to 'do it all over again.’
Now, before you balk at the high price, consider the benefit – You, or your children, would essentially get your first life 'for free’, allowing you the opportunity to save, invest, or insure yourself for the expensive procedure. Effectively this means you could work, save, and invest for the first 30+ years of your 'current' life, then de-age yourself back to your Prime 20's. Then, as the technology evolves, in/outpatient care costs would drop significantly and predictably, allowing you to age another decade or two before 'readjusting' time in your favor.
Not a bad deal.
So, what's the holdup?
Beyond the dedicated research scientists are performing and the critical breakthroughs already discovered, we also must consider the safety and efficacy (Does it work?) standards imposed by the Federal Drug Administration. Every new product or technology to market must follow a standardized regime of testing and observation to ensure compliance with our health and safety regulations. This process is broken into two main segments - Pre-Application Testing and FDA New Drug Application, and looks something like this:
Stage Preclinical – Vitro Testing (Cells) and Vivo (Animal) + Computer Modelling
1-6 Years
Stage 1 – Human Trials, 20-100 Participants
6mo - 1 Year
Stage 2 – Advanced Human Testing, 100+ Human Participants
1-2 Years
Stage 3 – Advanced Large Study – 1000+ Human Participants
1-4 Years
Start FDA New Drug Application (NDA) Process
Stage 4 - FDA Post-Approval Research and Monitoring
(Long-Term Effects Monitoring)
Marketable – Limited Market Release
Mass-Market Release
Looking Forward
Interesting questions surrounding this issue, namely:
Patient Selection
The Rich
Overpopulation
Challenges in Cures for Diseases and Ailments
Limitations
Immortality
Patient Selection
Let's start with Dictators. The ethical question is if a country's supreme leader is a known psychopath or despot – should they be 'allowed' to extend their reign of terror? What can we do to stop them, even if we disagree with them getting the procedure? Do we start a war? Do we send Seal Team 6 in the middle of the night to their hospital bed?
It's a fascinating question that doesn't have an answer. We can take a moral stance and make declarations – but what if the leader was elected? What if another country presumes our duly elected leader is a despot and wishes to enact their own life UN-extending procedure with 'surgical' precision?
Murderers, Prisoners, and the Law
That brings us to a domestic issue: Murderers and those serving life sentences in prison. To start, a life sentence in prison isn't that long, ranging from about 25-40 years, depending on the case's specifics and the egregious nature of the crimes. Even over an average life span, 25 years with a chance of parole in 10-20 is that long. That, of course, assumes the charges are 'simply' murder. Aggravated assaults, breaking and entering, and a variety of secondary charges like an assault with a deadly weapon with intent to harm and other charges quickly bring the total above the 'Life Sentence.' The question remains: If someone has already had the procedure and then commits a heinous crime, should they receive extra time in prison because their biological clock is turned back? Do we need to create special provisions within our Federal Statutes to address this issue?
I need more than the idea to convince me. A crime is a crime, and the punishment should fit the deed. Potential outlier cases may very well arise relating to people 'abusing' the system. In effect – Crime all you want, serve the time, then do it all over again. So, perhaps a legal consideration for these, hopefully, rare and outlier cases, may need to be considered. Regardless, we will need to wait for the first case to understand the issue's parameters.
Out with the Old, in with the... Old?
Career Politicians: With our current political class finally aging out and making room for some younger blood, though not necessarily much better. The question arises if someone who receives this treatment should be allowed to become a 'career politician' or maintain an office for an extended period. Herein, the US Military presents a fair solution that should be considered – namely within our Navy. As it stands, there are more enlisted Officers seeking the high command of Captain than in-service ships. A solution to this is term limits for the best qualified, allowing the few exceptional Officers to take the reins for a term, gain experience, and top out their otherwise outstanding careers. Previous to this solution, Captains would stay in positions for extended periods, limiting the potential for younger recruits and aiding an overall negative for recruitment.
The idea of term limits has been brought up regarding Congress and our Supreme Court for quite some time, including drawing back to the original drafting and passage of the 22nd Amendment, which provides those limitations on the Office of the President. Originally passed by Congress in 1947 and officially ratified by the States in the Union four years later in 1951 – This was an immediate response to the unending popularity of Franklin D Roosevelt, who served from 1933-1945 upon his death.
Just for the history of it, the 22nd Amendment of the US Constitution:
Section 1.
"No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice, and no person who has held the office of President, or acted as President, for more than two years of a term to which some other person was elected President shall be elected to the office of the President more than once…"
The Rich Get Richer
Speaking of pay increases – another issue to consider with Life Extension Technologies could be that the Rich Never Die. Which itself isn't a huge issue, except without the passage of life - inheritance and estate taxes could almost effectively be nullified – except in the cases of accidental. Hyperbolic arguments may suggest that Billionaires could become the next Trillionaires if allowed to continue working and investing for multiple lifetimes. Reasonably, we should expect this to become a political talking point among various politicians as they further develop their policy advocacy for Wealth Taxes for all Americans, including on owned property such as Housing, Art, and Stocks.
A Cure All
This brings us to an interesting consideration – The potential ending of many degenerative diseases, most notable among them being Arthritis, Parkinson's, and Multiple Sclerosis, which impacts tens of millions of Americans combined, presents us with fascinating unfolding questions:
What if we are unable to separate the cure from the De-Aging process? Or, in some rare cases, the patient refuses the treatment (Religious Objections, others) while claiming access to medical care. Can these people be denied medical care? Should their decisions be respected, even at great expense to Private Insurers, Public Health Services, and strained resources? What will the economic impact (Jobs, Businesses, GDP - the usual) result in? What about retirements, social security, and defined pension plans?
These big questions will need to be considered or even litigated through our legal system to find a resolution.
Overpopulation
The population issue is one of the most significant concerns with Life Extension and De-aging Technologies. As an introductory note to this concern – Overpopulation estimates previously aggrandized as a crisis is actually in reverse. For example, as mentioned here in The Observer, China is facing a demographic shift that will see its population fall below the minimum levels required to maintain current national production and economic activity. Whereas, among the G7 Nations, all countries face a 'Below Replacement' birthing crisis, where large families are becoming the exception and not the rule. The Billionaire Elon Musk often brings up this issue when he's asked about his ten children.
The most notable example of this situation is Japan, which is often considered the Canary in the Coalmine regarding the economic, market, and population issues – all of which are in critical condition and highly correlated. It is often speculated that the economic and market conditions drive lower birth rates and coupling of Japanese citizens.
Of serious note are the activities of the Central Bank of Japan, which is not-so-commonly known, to be the Investor of First Resort within the country, currently holding over 500 Billion worth of Publicly Traded Stock from the JPX – Osaka Securities Exchange. The BOJ is accused of manipulating the stock market with its limitless-cash purchases. It has even been witnessed actively buying newly listed IPOs to shore up and control official and unofficial inflation. Furthermore, criticism is now vigorously thrown towards our own Central Bank after they violated their governing legislation, which limited their ability to actively participate within Publicly Traded Markets – through the use of subsidiary companies and Investment Banks with Active Fed Accounts.
As they say in some circles – So goes Japan, and so goes the World.
Therefore, I don't put too much stock in this overpopulation issue, even though it's probably the most actively discussed among academics. But, predictably, we can expect this to evolve into a problem once Mass-Market services for De-Aging technologies and cures are made available to everyone. Which presents an interesting question for you to consider: Would you accept mandatory and irreversible sterilization if it meant you could live forever? Would you choose the natural path?
You could have as many kids as you wanted in your 'first' life, so these issues might need more planning by families as they move along in academic development.
“The only thing wrong with immortality is that it tends to go on forever.”
-Herb Caen
Immortality
The holy grail of modern medical science. The literal fountain of youth.
Immortality could become a reality within our lifetimes, allowing people to live for hundreds of years if they can avoid an accident. Of course, you could still get hit by a bus walking down the street, but the idea has intoxicated leaders and empires for millennia or more. Which begs the question - What, then?
What would people do if they didn't have to worry about slowly dying?
Well, that's when everything in our society gets exciting. I'd imagine you can think of at least three things you would want to do, but consider this:
Our nearest habitable planet is 'Alpha Centauri,' and it's only 4.74 Light Years away. Centauri circulates within what astronomers call the 'circumstellar habitable zone, commonly referred to as the 'Goldilocks Zone.
With advancements in these technologies and others, we could work towards becoming a Type 1+ Civilization by sending colonies of willing participants off into the stars to seek new unknowns, new elements, and even new cures and technologies. The possibilities are nearly as endless as the universe itself.
Conclusion
Outside of the biological system field of research considered above, many other exciting technological pathways are currently under investigation and development, which have fascinating prospects towards ending diseases, and impairments, and improving quality of life for everyone, including breakthroughs in:
Artificial and Lab-Grown Organ Transplants
Stem Cell Research
Hormone Therapies
Microbiome Research (Gut Health)
Selective Cloning
Nanotechnologies
Ultimately, we are still determining when the next breakthrough in science is coming or where it will come from. But we know this: There has never been a period in human history when Science, Academia, Government, and Big Business were so closely aligned on one ultimate goal - changing lives.
If that isn't enough to be hopeful for, I don't know what is.
As always,
Farewell and Good Luck.
-Dark Philosopher
Forecasting Trends:
Confirmed: Various Degenerative/Repair Treatments (Incl Spinal Repair, Cancers),
Clinical Trials, Various Stages of 1-2a (See Below)
Possible Timeline to Market – Year 2028-2036,
Pending FDA Approval.
Timeline for De-Aging – 2042-2060+ pending further breakthroughs
Various Incorrect Predictions over the years from experts (2009, 2012, 2017)
Highly Likely to Involve Multiple Products, not a cure-all,
This timeline is highly subject to change, either extended or reduced, based on FDA approval, research progression, side-effect studies, and critical advancements.
Black Swan Possibilities:
There exists a possibility of unknown side effects to these treatments, which may reduce lifespan or cause other issues for patients,
Possible the human body has a built-in mechanism or resistance, whether intended or not, that prevents or alters these treatments from being effective,
E.g., Cognitive Degradation, Advanced Cancers, and New Diseases.
Monitoring:
Over 10 Pharmaceutical Research Organizations are currently developing various forms of these technologies,
The current expectation is a multitude of treatments, not a singular solution
Estimated Market Value by 2027 - $93 Billion
Expected Resistance, including Legal Challenges, from various opponents
Including Fundamentalist Christians, Anti- Trans-Humanism Activists, and other 'Natural Living' groups
These organizations haven't yet mounted any serious counter movement
High potential for violence and extreme rhetoric
November 16th, 2023 - Fixed Format, Layout, Signature