This article is next in the Energy Series. For those who haven't already read the previous article, I would highly encourage you to read it first; I expect a few of you will find it enlightening.
Nuclear Power. It's such a funny technology. Most people don't know how it produces power. They believe that we can extract energy from the radiated rods themselves in some manner.
The truth is quite pedestrian. The basic concept of Nuclear Power is illustratively an electric stove with a tea kettle. The stove's element is hot, and placing a tea kettle in contact with the hot element produces steam. The steam is diverted and turns a turbine, which produces energy.
That's about it. The rest of the systems involved merely control the flow of water, energy, cooling, backup systems to those systems, and the like.
Nuclear Power is Steam Power. It's an expensive and advanced tea kettle, which, if mishandled, can kill millions of people, theoretically slow the earth's rotation following a meltdown, and is entirely impossible, with current technology, to clean up if there is an accident. What a magnificent time to be alive, isn't it?
I won't talk about the 3-mile Island, Harrisburg, Pennsylvania (March 28, 1979) for this article. I'm not going to talk about Sellafield, Northwest England (October 10, 1957), or even The Church Rock Uranium Mine, New Mexico (July 16, 1979)
I'm also not going to talk about Chernobyl, North of Kyiv, Ukraine (April 26, 1986), and how the previously constructed containment over the melted reactor began failing back in the 1990s, prompting a recent steel construction that is hoped to hold back the inevitable expulsion once that original containment collapses into the buried core.
I'm not even going to talk about the Fukushima Nuclear Incident (March 11, 2011), which caused their reactor core to bury itself into the earth and become "lost." Nor the nearly immeasurable radioactive and contaminated water that endlessly poured into our oceans for years afterward before containment.
Contamination that didn't dissipate, by the way, and as of a few years ago, has officially traversed the entire globe along the ocean currents and returned to Japan again. Nor will I discuss that Japan's containment facilities for contaminated water are now at capacity, and they have begun releasing that contamination into the oceans - again.
One should never become a Chef until they learn how to clean a Kitchen.
I’m also not going to discuss the issues of spent fuel storage and how our concrete containers barely last 30 years, never mind the hundreds of years required before this thrown-away waste is safe in any environment. Nor the issues of utilizing spent uranium as a form of weapon system, which is technically a violation of specific protocols of the Geneva Convention.
I’m not going to talk about the National Security Risks of having these systems near population centers, connected to the internet, and dependent on supplies of data and materials to maintain operations. Nor am I going to go into depth regarding Foreign Nationals having access to these services, systems, and operations both through clearance and not. And how the integrity of those critical systems depends on our enemies’ ability to infiltrate them, as we now live in a time when one doesn’t need to drop bombs to cause meltdowns.
I wouldn’t dare go into those topics, as those are articles anyone could write about in infinite detail. No, dear reader, I will discuss the fundamental problem with Nuclear Energy - Legacy.
Which is a topic no one dares discuss in this modern era of modern ideas.
National Nuclear Project
For perspective, this is a chart of the current breakdown of energy sources.
As you can see, Nuclear Power only currently covers around 8% of total energy needs. The goals of that industry and its activists would be for Nuclear Power to consume both Coal and Natural Gas sources, along with a portion of Petroleum - which can only occur if the majority of vehicles on the roads convert to electric, which is a pipedream within its own right and deserving of an entire article on just that topic.
To begin offsetting current Coal and Natural Gas energy production with Nuclear Power - The US would need to build around 450+ new Nuclear Reactors across the country to meet current energy demands, with an expected expansion of our total operational reactors to continue for a century into the future as per capita energy use increases, and pending no breakthroughs in future technologies within the sector.
Reactor Costs
Each Reactor has an estimated cost of $12 Billion, which dramatically inflates to upwards of $30 billion upon project completion and takes more than a decade to bring online due to environmental, labor, and material complications. The total estimated cost to supplant current Coal and Natural Gas in 2023, without any assumed added costs, ranges from $5.4 Trillion to $13.5 Trillion US dollars.
If the final price tag to bring the US into the Nuclear Age was “only” $13.5 Trillion, we could afford that, with the cost spread across half a century.
It isn’t.
Distribution Issues
If the Federal and State Governments were to commit to this massive and unparalleled work project today, cutting the check and slashing thousands of environmental and safety regulations to fast-track it, it would easily take over 25 years to reach completion, assuming the US had and could temporarily import the workforce and specialized labor needed to pull off this ridiculous Public Works Project. This brings us to the problem of the distribution of labor and materials.
Our on-demand economic supply system cannot suddenly manufacture and churn out the materials, labor, and specialties required to bring hundreds of Nuclear Reactors spread across a vast country like the US into existence within a short period of time.
Labor would need expensive and extensive training, which takes time.
New contracting organizations, unions, and personnel would need to spring up, become trained, and mobilized.
Existing Uranium Mines, Enrichment Facilities, transportation services, and the like would need to be built, come into operation, and churn to meet the massively increased demand of both the existing global Nuclear infrastructure and the 450+ reactors, which would be rapidly coming into operations.
Material Suppliers and Manufacturers, such as Concrete, Steel, Graphite, Electrical Systems, and all the rest, would need to significantly increase production to meet the demands of both their existing customers and the 450+ reactors and future demands of expiring reactors already existing within the US.
Various State and Federal Agencies would need to onboard and train a new fleet of inspectors, regulators, and management to handle the massive workload increase upon the Department of Energy (DOE), the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), and the hundreds of State Agencies with oversight in these systems.
Existing Safe Disposal Sites operated by the DOE would need potential retrofitting, infrastructure improvements, or expansion.
Logistical Services, including temporary housing, transportation, distribution handling, and procurement, would also need to expand significantly, with many new companies and contractors needing to start, train, and come into operations to meet those demands.
And a whole lot more…
As you can rightly see, this is a complicated mess, with each element within the construction and operation of these new reactors requiring expansion, investment, and time to meet the immediate demand. The US government may manage this work project effectively, leaning on preferential Trade Treaties amongst other nations and negotiating for bulk pricing and foreign labor among many of the materials needed.
To be conservative, let's assume all the above only adds 30% to the project's final cost, even though more reasoned estimates might suggest upwards of 60-130% are more likely under such tight time constraints of only two and half decades to complete.
This brings the total to around $7.02 - $17.5 Trillion US Dollars on a 25-year Schedule.
In our example, we assume that the US and State Governments are cutting the check today, in 2023, and therefore locking in rates into the future. Since we don't know what future inflation will be, and our national debt is susceptible to inflationary pressures, let's assume the historical average of 6%, even though that rate will probably look cheap during some periods in the future.
Therein, adding $7-17.5 Trillion dollars to our National Debt, times 6% a year debt servicing cost (3% Premium assumed over market rate), equals approximately $420B - 1 Trillion yearly cost, or $10.5 - $25 Trillion interest cost over the life of the project, assuming prices and costs were fixed at today's value.
Decommissioning
The average lifespan of a Nuclear Reactor varies wildly. Older models were built with the expectation of being in operation for 40 years or more, while over half of those reactors didn't make it half the time before requiring decommission.
Newer reactors with a lifespan of upwards of 40-100 years are being sold to the public. However, it is entirely unknown and unlikely most reactors would last that long without massive and expensive retrofitting or partial decommissioning.
With history as our guide, let's assume a 40-year lifespan, with half of those reactors only staying in operation for half that expected time and the other half having their lifespan extended by 20 years or more.
This assumes that of the 450+ reactors built, the first 225 of them would need to be torn down before the finalization of the National Nuclear Project, thereby extending the project by an additional 15 years to replace the first reactors with more new reactors. These assumptions also don't account for the existing 93 Nuclear Reactors within the US already in operation today.
With each decommissioning project having an average cost of $1.2 Billion and taking over a decade to complete fully, this adds another $270 Billion in decommissioning costs to the total National Nuclear Project.
(For simplicity, we won't add the conservative 30% cost inflation to this figure for labor demands, plus the estimated 3-6% inflation value per year on the total cost.)
Rebuilt
Now, since we just decommissioned 225 Reactors near the end of the 25-year project, we have to rebuild those reactors in other locations to maintain supply to meet the demand of 2023 energy needs, even though the year is now 2048 and energy needs are expectedly much higher than today.
For simplicity, we will assume all new energy needs in the next 25 years will be through coal and gas consumption, as our project is ONLY trying to replace those energy sources to meet current demand today.
Therein, we need to add another $3.5-8.75 Trillion to the cost of our National Nuclear Project. Of course, it doesn’t assume the value of those dollars spent in the year 2048 when these replacement reactors are being built, as we can’t reasonably add that cost today for failures in the future.
Therefore, adjusted for expected historical inflation levels and assuming no radical economic impacts during the next 25 years, the total cost of the 225 replacement reactors in 2048 is approximately $6.23-15.5 Trillion.
Total Estimated Costs - Conservative Estimates
Initial Cost - $5.4-13.5 Trillion
Inflated Costs - $1.6-4 Trillion
Debt Servicing - $10.5-25 Trillion
Decommission - $270+ Billion
Replacement Reactors - $6.23-15.5 Trillion
Total Cost to Build Reactors = $24-58.27 Trillion US Dollars
As you read, we applied the most generous, conservative figures to this assessment. We assumed interest rates would stay relatively flat over the next three decades, and we thought the US Government could lock in prices and costs in today’s values without massive hikes in future prices due to increased demand from the project. We also didn’t assume existing infrastructure replacement, added costs due to environmental concerns and regulations, or extraneous expenses related to additional infrastructure, both short and long-term (building temporary and permanent roads, power lines, storage, worker camps, etc.)
Nor did we assume any maintenance, inspections, refueling, disposal, delays, or incidents; most critically, we believed every reactor would never have a malfunction, critical issue, or loss of containment.
Less than Ideal
For illustrative purposes, the less-than-ideal estimates of this entire project, which assume more realistic expectations of prices, materials, labor, and the rest, suggest this National Nuclear Project would take upwards of 45 years to complete at a total cost of over $100 Trillion, without any incidents or added expenses factored in, and with a significant portion of that cost being inflationary.
For perspective, the estimated total money circulating the world right now is around $125 Trillion, with only $21 Trillion of that being US Dollars.
Now that you have a better understanding, you can begin to see why many localities are installing “Smart Meters” and charging added fees for “Peak Power” usage and other punitive programs. The idea is that if you use less power, then we don’t need as many power plants to supplant current and future energy needs.
Do you see?
Renting Society
We often love to speak about ‘muh government’ and ‘muh rights.’ The truth of the matter is these are not yours. This government is not yours. Those rights are not yours. We, the People, are merely renting these things.
We do not own anything fundamentally; we merely rent. We are the guardians of this period in time across a vast range of periods of various times.
But! Before the knee-jerk reaction from those Conservatives jumps out and kicks my shin, no, I am not referring to that WEF “You shall own nothing” philosophy.
Most certainly not.
That philosophy supposes not that no one owns these things but rather that you don’t own them. In that regard, you are the ultimate owner, protector, and claimant to all these things, but only as far as you can protect them and keep them safe from all those before and after us who wish to destroy what was created.
Instead, what I’m suggesting to you is an outlook on public policy. A Philosophy of Governance, if you will, which is quite simple:
It’s not yours, so don’t break it.
I often think about those Generational Farms we used to hear about but rarely hear about anymore. The classic “My daddy’s daddy’s grandfather bought this farm” stories. There are, of course, still some farms out there that can trace the land and lineage back to before the Founding of this nation. Those lands have seen everything from disease to usury, from bondage to battles. Often, in our society, land changes hands. Changes purpose. Changes lives. Rarely, though, does the land change.
We can pave over it, build on top of it. We can even dig into it or flood it. Over time, the land looks a little different, sometimes radically different, but it’s still the same land, in that same place, across all this time.
In places like Detroit, the land builds up, is paved over, and homes are mounted on top of foundations. There was a period when we couldn’t build enough homes in Detroit.
Now, Detroit is tearing down those abandoned homes, tearing up all those established foundations, and returning the land to the farmers—the same land.
People change, and yet they don’t change at all.
The land changes, and yet it doesn’t change very much.
Sometimes, throughout history, people arrive on the cusp of significant changes that are exciting and novel. Humans love to dream big, live big, and talk big. We love to view the time we live in, whatever time that is, across all periods of time, as the time and place to be.
But it isn’t. It’s just a time in the same old place.
It’s always the problems that need solutions now, like the pipes in Flint, Michigan, that get ignored, while the issues we aren’t facing for generations into the future are the ones we all fight to solve today.
Big Dreams.
Big Solutions.
Bigger Problems.
I’m not saying we should work toward regressivism, nor should we work towards our modern view of progressivism.
What I’m asking is, what right do we have, as the people of today, to lay at the feet of the following five generations of future human beings the big solutions we think they need? Even if we feel so justified and sanctified in our big dreams and solutions, who among us is willing to claim responsibility for the big problems we will inevitably cause when we can’t even fix the small ones we created and inherited?
Advancements
None of the above considers the question - Is Nuclear Power the best we can do? Is this technology expected to supersede all previous forms of energy generation? Is this truly the highest advancement in Energy Technology that our world can muster?
I think that Nuclear Power is only one of the significant advancements. It is not the next iteration of energy. It is not our most extraordinary capability and, therefore, is undeserving of such costs and potential destruction to budgets, environments, the distribution of labor, and, perhaps most importantly, your pocketbook, which will most certainly become depleted faster than any enriched rods of radiation could ever refresh.
I like to believe…
No, scratch that.
I have to believe that our society cannot and will not allow the existing infrastructure and controls, which seek and have accomplished the pulling of levers against the flow of information and thought, to continue. I must believe this because our future is dependent on it.
Outside of this potentially irrational fantasy, I struggle to project a future in which the last century is repeated into the next. We live in a world with 193 Nations. Each nation is an experiment in governance, culture, language, and the rest. Most importantly, each nation offers the world its best, and each of those best amongst them has the equal opportunity to present a possibility to that world. The possibilities here are not truly endless, but they are seemingly infinite.
To suggest that 193 experiments in human endeavor across 8+ Billion people cannot produce one singular solution outside of our current technological understanding is only possible if each of those 193 nations pulls the levers to maintain that status quo.
If history has taught us anything, it teaches us that it only takes One. Just one singular human unit to ask questions and demand answers. Just one to seek new solutions to old problems. Just one to avoid accepting old answers as justification for continuing issues.
I’m going to tell you something. Something I’ve never told anyone out of confidence, for fear of my reputation, if not my life. A story was told to me by a man with the professional designation and means to know it.
This little story is about a man of impeccable means, who, though highly secretive to the degree I don’t even know his actual name, told me about something he wasn’t supposed to say. This conversation came about while I was discussing my 3 Laws Paradox.
This man was a “Technology Dealer,” a profession I had no idea existed within our society, but having heard of it, it makes perfect sense to exist. He told me about a device that doesn’t exist. A device that has no name or patent number assigned for fear of reprisal that patent filing would incur on the inventor.
This dealer told me about a little black box. A box small enough to fit into the palm of your hand. How the box functioned, he would not say under any pressure, I assume, for fear of his safety and that of his family.
With a small smile, he told me this:
”For every unit of energy you put into the box, more units are returned.”
And that was it. The conversation abruptly ended. I never saw the man again. I’ve never heard of this device since. I don’t know where he lives or works. I don’t even remember his face, as this conversation occurred a few years ago.
The point is this - the human race is capable of far more than we could ever imagine. We have technologies hidden away in vaults worldwide that would revolutionize almost every aspect of our lives and understanding of reality the moment they are allowed to enter the public eye.
As one former Spook so rightly put it many years ago, paraphrased:
‘It would take an act of God himself to bring these
Black Programs out of the basement and into the public.’
Alternatively, it would take an act of One.
Just One in 8 Billion.
But that One needs support; they need people to be aware of our situation, to be observant of its coming, and to be ready to protect and disseminate those technologies when they are made available, as every force and government on the planet will do everything in their power to stop the public from becoming aware of its potential, as those powers have done to every other attempt to bring these technologies out of their vaults.
You are One of many, dear reader. I know this as an objective fact because, unlike the thousands who have come across these pages and just as quickly retreated, you didn’t. You aren’t here because we always agree. You aren’t here because I fill you with hope and happy thoughts and pat you on the back for a well-done job. I suspect you are here for a few reasons, and I’d imagine at least one of those reasons is because, like me, you want a better future.
A better Legacy.
Better ideas.
Maybe even a glimmer of hope.
I can’t tell you when or how these things will happen; even if I did, you probably wouldn’t believe me.
What I can say is this: The Solution is Available.
It’s cheap.
It’s small.
And every household in America and the world can have one.
Until that day happens, we must resist these attempts at pushing our world into a direction that will be extremely difficult to return from, if not impossible.
For those who read what I just wrote and bulk at the improbability, I say this:
Nuclear Power is being pushed on us by lobbying efforts and lip service of numerous Commissions, Organizations, Press Consortiums, Inter-Government Panels, and Consensus Boards worldwide. Indeed, they have been successful in many countries - Ask yourself why. Seek the answer in your own words.
If the answer was Environmental, the solution wouldn’t be Nuclear.
If the answer was National Security, the solution wouldn’t be Nuclear.
If the answer was genuinely cheap and reliable energy, the solution wouldn’t be Nuclear.
Find the answer before someone else answers it for you.
As always,
Farewell, and Good Luck.
-Dark Philosopher
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